3/23/2023 0 Comments Fed next meeting![]() The unemployment rate remains at 3.6%, a 50-year low. New claims for unemployment insurance have ticked up only slightly, as the chart below shows, ranging between 215,000 to 231,000 in June and into July, and have remained low the last year and a half. Still, inflation remains far above the FOMC’s target of 2%.Ĭountering what some believe is a slowdown in the economy is the condition of labor markets. Anecdotal evidence suggests some prices may be coming down, most notably lumber prices and used car prices. Right now, the inflation numbers – albeit old – are not favorable, as the chart below indicates.ĬPI inflation is running at 8.5%, while the PCE has held steady at 6.3 percent for the most recently available two months of data. There will be one more data release for CPI, next week. Moreover, there will not be another data point until July 29, after the FOMC’s July meeting. The inflation numbers are only available with a lag, and only the May data are available for the FOMC’s preferred measure, PCE. So, the FOMC is faced with the challenge of trying to decide how much its recent policy moves are impacting growth, inflation and labor markets, and what the risk is of causing a recession while inflation is still high. More recently, Goldman Sachs released its revised forecast for Q2, cutting its estimate from 1.9% to 0.7% ( Goldman slashes GDP forecast for the second quarter to just barely above water ). Similarly, the Conference Board’s forecast is for 1.9% growth this year, but that was an earlier estimate released on June 21. The minutes for the June FOMC meeting state that the Board of Governors staff had projected GDP to rebound in the second quarter and remain solid through the end of the year, if somewhat weaker than projected in the Board’s May forecast, but still above trend. First-quarter 2022 GDP growth was -1.5%, according to the BEA, and the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now for quarter two stands at -1.2%, which, if realized, would amount to two quarters of negative GDP growth. ![]() ![]() The Committee will be faced with the challenge of assessing whether growth in the second quarter is likely to be negative, triggering the declaration of a recession, or whether growth has persisted. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for July 26 & 27. 12, 2022 1:44 AM ET ACTV, AFMC, AFSM, AMER, ARKK, AVUV, BAPR, BAUG, BBMC, BBSC, BFOR, BFTR, BJUL, BJUN, BKMC, BKSE, BMAR, BMAY, BOCT, BOSS, BOUT, BUFF, BUL, CALF, CATH, CBSE, CSA, CSB, CSD, CSF, CSML, CSTNL, CWS, CZA, DDIV, DEEP, DES, DEUS, DFAS, DFAT, DGRS, DIA, DIV, DJD, DON, DSPC, DVLU, DWAS, DWMC, EES, EFIV, EPS, EQAL, ESML, ETHO, EWMC, EWSC, EZM, FAB, FAD, FDM, FFTY, FLQM, FLQS, FNDA, FNK, FNX, FNY, FOVL, FRTY, FSMD, FTA, FTDS, FYC, FYT, FYX, GBGR, GLRY, GSSC, HAIL, HIBL, HIBS, HLGE, HOMZ, HSMV, IJH, IJJ, IJK, IJR, IJS, IJT, IMCB, IMCG, IMCV, IPO, ISCB, ISCG, ISCV, ISMD, IUSS, IVDG, IVE, IVOG, IVOO, IVOV, IVV, IVW, IWC, IWM, IWN, IWO, IWP, IWR, IWS, IYY, JDIV, JHMM, JHSC, JPME, JPSE, JSMD, JSML, KAPR, KJAN, KJUL, KNG, KOMP, KSCD, LSAT, MDY, MDYG, MDYV, MGMT, MID, MIDE, MIDF, NAPR, NIFE, NJAN, NOBL, NUMG, NUMV, NUSC, NVQ, OMFS, ONEO, ONEQ, ONEV, ONEY, OSCV, OUSM, OVS, PAMC, PAPR, PAUG, PBP, PBSM, PEXL, PEY, PJAN, PJUN, PLTL, PQLC, PQSG, PQSV, PRFZ, PSC, PTMC, PUTW, PWC, PY, QDIV, QMOM, QQC, QQD, QQEW, QQQ, QQQA, QQQE, QQQJ, QQQM, QQQN, QQXT, QTEC, QVAL, QVML, QVMM, QVMS, QYLD, QYLG, REGL, RFG, RFV, RNMC, RNSC, ROSC, RPG, RPV, RSP, RVRS 3 Comments 4 Likes
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